Oct 10, 2006

On Unbottled Genies and Geopolitics

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Left: North Korean nuclear facility at Yongbyon

The announcement by the North Koreans that they have successfully completed an underground nuclear test is merely the latest chapter in the proliferation of nuclear technology around the globe. Unfortunately, it appears that this trend will continue in the forseeable future.

It is interesting to note that the media has been quick to focus on North Korea as a "rogue" state in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, yet nations such as India, Pakistan, and Israel - all armed with nuclear devices and all non-signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - seem to get a free pass.

The "rogue" state of Iran, on the other hand, is a signatory to the NPT, and argues that its uranium enrichment program is permitted under the "peaceful uses" clause of the NPT. We may have our doubts about Iran's sincerity, but that nation is at least paying lip service to the NPT.

If the President was serious about nuclear non-proliferation, he would not have given India the nuclear green light last year in his surprising joint agreement with India. It seems to this writer that a "rogue" state is one that operates outside of international law; surely India, Pakistan, and Israel thus qualify for "rogue" status.

Instead, the President seems to be saying that the United States should be the final arbiter on the question of which nations should possess nuclear technology. In addition, the unspoken message to would-be nuclear powers is this:
"Don't worry about the NPT - once you attain nuclear status, you will be among an elite group of world powers who hold an atomic trump card, and you will be able to negotiate from strength."
The North Koreans - whether they actually detonated a nuclear device on Sunday or not - realize how the game is now played, and know that they are in a position to command much more respect with nukes than without. Unless all nations are held accountable to the NPT, the document is meaningless.

The net result of the undermining of the NPT by President Bush - and to a lesser extent some of his predecessors - will be that more states acquire nuclear weapons, increasing the likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used.

Of course, perhaps some of the President's advisors actually favor the unbottling of the nuclear genie, and look forward to the day when the American nuclear arsenal can be a legitimate - and not theoretical - component of military strategy.

That, my friends, would be a frightening scenario.

5 comments:

peccary said...

You give that moron Bush too much credit - he and his people are too stupid to have a master plan for nukes.

microdot said...

I, myself, give the cabal that surrounds Bush a lot of credit for various "master plans" of all varieties.
If you were paying attention to the news coming form the Pentagon over the last few years, you wouuld be aware that an entire new arsenal of nuclear weaponry has been developed by the USA and there are a lot of Jr. Doctor Strangeloves just itching to see them perform in a real time situation.
It's one thing to perform a computer simulation and another thing all together to be responsible for a real big bang!
It becomes more evident that the administration had access to intelligence that North Korea would probably have nuclear capability by the middle of this decade. Now that some sort of event has occurred will they actually start talking? I think all that North Korea has done is drawn some unlikely nations to become allies. China, Korea and Japan are going to develop stronger ties to deal with this.
A little more pathetic regarding the North Koreans, this seems to have been an attempt to make waves and force the issue. A giant PR move that is going to backfire. The French Defense Minister today issued the first official statement that the test was an utter failure. The explosion registered a barely half kiloton blast on the siesmic counters. The next few days will see verification of actual radiation counts which will further verify if in fact a nuclear event had occurred.
I think that Bush has been obsessed with Iran and is building up a case to repeat his nasty habit of punishing the wrong country. You know, Destroy Iraq because Afghanistan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia bred the movement that destroyed the World trade center.
The scariiest thing to me is that I believe that Bush feels he has to deal with Iran to make up for the humiliation Iran dealt America with the Hostage Crisis back in the 70's and of course, a nice regime change that wopuld be a puppet for our oil interests. All of that coupled with the religious lunatics that pour their bizarre rationalizations into his brain. I feel that there is a group of lunatics deadset on having a war with Iran and leadiing this nation into a bigger disaster than any we have experienced to date. To me it would be truly biblical in it's scale!

Name withheld to protect the guilty said...

"No country without an atomic bomb can properly consider itself independent." --Charles de Gaulle, the last of the cheese-eating aggression monkeys. :)

microdot said...

Ta Guele! Ho Puree! Tu dois penser que tu est tres rigolo! Peut-etre tout la MacDo tu a manger a allait a ton cerveaux!
Seriousment, ton comment etais tres intelligent!
Merci bien!

Hooda Thunkit said...

Mike,


”It is interesting to note that the media has been quick to focus on North Korea as a "rogue" state in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, yet nations such as India, Pakistan, and Israel - all armed with nuclear devices and all non-signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - seem to get a free pass.”

As will the next nation that does so, and the next, and the next, and. . .


”Instead, the President seems to be saying that the United States should be the final arbiter on the question of which nations should possess nuclear technology.”

Why, because we had it first?


”The North Koreans - whether they actually detonated a nuclear device on Sunday or not - realize how the game is now played…”

Has it has always been played…


:Of course, perhaps some of the President's advisors actually favor the unbottling of the nuclear genie, and look forward to the day when the American nuclear arsenal can be a legitimate - and not theoretical - component of military strategy.

That, my friends, would be a frightening scenario.”


Ah yes, then we would be perfectly justified in proceeding with the development of the Neutron Bomb (as if we’ve ever really stopped), starting the whole escalation thing all over, yet again. . .


Our smartest opponents listen to what we say and watch what we do to put the “real picture” together. And they’re on to us; they now know that, by our actions, we routinely ”talk” out of both sides of our mouths.