Sep 28, 2007

On the Probability of War with Iran

Those who make a habit of reading the tea leaves related to the Bush Administration's obsession with provoking war with the Iranians know that the U.S. has been actively drawing up war plans against Iran since at least 2004. The debate among administration officials these days seems to revolve around the type of war that will be delivered to us.

One scenario envisioned by the war hawks involves merely targeting suspected nuclear facilities in Iran, while other Bush advisors call for attacks on up to 2,000 of Iran's military installations, communications centers, and related targets.

The Bush administration has even managed to convince many Democrats to join in on the anti-Iranian festivities, as the Senate, in a 76-22 vote on Wednesday, approved a non-binding amendment to the 2008 defense authorization bill that designated Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a "foreign terrorist organization". This is in response to claims that Iran is providing weapons and training to Shi'ite militias in Iraq, but the net result of this action will be to drive even more support behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iranian hardliners. Here are some of the relevant paragraphs of Senate Amendment 3017:
(3) that it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its foreign facilitators such as Lebanese Hezbollah, and its indigenous Iraqi proxies;
(4) to support the prudent and calibrated use of all instruments of United States national power in Iraq, including diplomatic, economic, intelligence, and military instruments, in support of the policy described in (3) with respect to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies;
(5) that the United States should designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist organization under section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act and place the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists, as established under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and initiated under Executive Order 13224;
Senator Clinton voted for the amendment, while Senator Obama abstained. The only significant criticism of this piece of noxious legislation came from Senator Jim Webb, who called the move Vice President Dick Cheney's "fondest pipe dream."

The demonization of the Republic of Iran began many years ago after the Iranian Revolution, and the visit this week by Ahmadinejad to Columbia University ended up being another public relations coup for the Bush Administration. University President Lee Bollinger played an important role for the Bush administration in the run-up to a war with Iran, introducing the Iranian President as a "petty and cruel dictator" and someone whose comments on the Holocaust demontrate that he is "either brazenly provocative or astonishingly uneducated."

While Ahmadinejad is indeed a poor historian, he is the leader of a sovereign nation, and it is clear that there is a concentrated effort by American elites such as Bollinger to justify war with Iran through the process of demonization, whether as willing participants or as unwitting dupes. This is regrettable, because an attack on Iranian military targets will likely mean at least a significantly wider regional war, and perhaps be a trigger for a new world war.

I am of the opinion that military actions against Iran will commence in February or March 2008, and that the net result of this foolhardy plan of action will be an inescapable escalation of the conflict into a wider war with the use of nuclear weaponry for the first time since 1945.

May God have mercy on all of our souls if this comes to pass.


Anonymous said...

Get up on the wrong side of the bed, Mikey?

There will be no Iran war. This is just tough love to get the Iranians to deal.


mud_rake said...

JD- want to bet the ranch on your statement?

Mr. Schwartz said...

I don't see a war with Iran but I do see some selective bombings if their nuclear program goes too far. If there is a war, it will be a air only war, which the Iranians will be powerless to do anything about it. I don't see an occupation of Iran though.

I personally don't see Iran as that much of a threat myself and even if they did acquire a nuke and were able to launch it toward Israel, do you think they would be stupid enough to do that knowing the Israeli's would strike back 100 fold?

It's like the old USA/USSR days, nuclear weapons were defensive weapons to ensure that neither side would want to destroy themselves by first launching.

mud_rake said...

Check out what Daniel Ellsberg has to say about our own 'rogue administration' of George Bush.

microdot said...

Mike, thank you for this post. If the Bush administration is allowed to go ahead with its plans to attack Iran, the first American casualty will be the American Constitution.
This isn't just about Iran, this is the next step in the Cheney Universal executive program and your right to dissent is going to disappear.
I know I sound like a total alarmist to a lot of sane thinking Toledoans, but look around and look deeply at what you've lost since 9/11. It's almost as if there has been a coup d'etat. The President is ruling by decree, it's called the line item veto. There is so much stuff crammed into the Patriot Act that has been in develoipment since the Nixon Era that has to be diffused........
The most important threat facing America right now is the Iran War Movement! It must be diffused!
Support the Impeachment of Dick Cheney!
Now I have to go back to grape picking for a week...we start again at 8 am!

microdot said...

sorry, I meant to use the word de-fused, dis armed in stead of diffused...chalk it up to this French keyboard!

Mad Jack said...

even if they did acquire a nuke and were able to launch it toward Israel, do you think they would be stupid enough to do that knowing the Israeli's would strike back 100 fold?

Yes, I do. Since they can't reach the USA, Israel is the next best (maybe the best) target. No, Allah will protect us from the evil Israeli army - Alli Akbar!

::We'll Meet Again begins to play::

The closest thing we have to the Iranian government in the US are the rabid anti-abortion groups who are willing to bomb clinics, assassinate people and support those who do. Morality doesn't matter to them, because they believe that they are doing God's work.

Mad Jack said...

I'll wager $5 that we selectively bomb Iran within the next two years. I'll bet $10 that Israel bombs Iran with the US blessing and support.

kooz said...

I thought the Iranian President constantly saying Jews and Americans should be destroyed and eliminated was why some democrats are convinced to go to war with them.

Also, France seems they are ready to attack Iran to. Did you see the president of France speaking at the U.N. this past week?

Barb said...

What sort of talk got No. Korea to change course recently? or was it their fizzled bombs? Did they test some nuclear bombs? Or did we just think they did --i honestly don't remember history/news on that point but thought their tests weren't too effective. Do you think there was any of JD's (anonymous's) tough love talk to get them to deal?

It was interesting to me that the National Press Club and the pres. of Columbia asked I'madinnerjacket (thank you microdot -I still can't spell the guy's name) such pointed questions --and didn't "make nice" with him --about free press in his nation, intentions toward Israel, etc. Will this make him think twice? Did he possibly think that all of USA is united against Bush and therefore potentially in HIS pocket? I'll bet he was surprised at the lack of cordiality --was it rude and undiplomatic and counter-productive on our side? or was it shrewd to let him know that not even the American liberals respect him.

Mr. Schwartz said...


Kind of what they did to Syria recently? Israel bombed them with the US blessing and the Syrians can do nothing about it. I'm not sure if the bombing was justified or not, as doing such things only stirs up more s**t in the Middle East and hatred of both Israel and America.

microdot said...

The bombing of Syria was a "warning shot" so to speak assisted by USA targeting systems. No one in our State Department believes the Syrians are actually involved in nuclear arms activity.

Sarkozy, after his vacation here went back to France and began to make a lot of statements thatt echoed US policy. Kuchner, the foreign minister went to Bagdhad, and made statements that he later took back and admitted that were coached by Condi Rice only minutes before he made them.

Sarkozy is echoing American lines on Iran to the horror of the rest of Europe. Kuchner on French television last week committed the gaff of actuually ttelling the French people to prepare for war with Iran, a statrement he has been back paddling from all week.
What is going on in France is complex but actually relatively simple. Sarkozy has played to the Israeli lobby and counted on the Jewish intellectual community here for support which he got. He also plays to the Far Right very deftly.
What has he gotten from this cooperation with America?
Suddenly, France's energy giant Total has been dealt a big hand in the apportionment of Iraqs oil and the EDF has gotten the contracts for the redevelopment of the electrical grid of Iraq. They installed the original destroyed system under Saddam. thgis is the tip of the iceberg. Sarkozy is all show and everything is done for economic prizes...i.e. the Libyan Hostage deal which netted France a Nuclear Plant deal and the contract to build auto routes in Libya.

I feel the most interesting sign in what we are dealing with as far as the Build up goes is the report 2 weeks ago of the nuclear cruise missles being moved from Minot, South Dakota to the staging area for mid east operations in Louisiana. Moving missils across the USA by B52 is not a very unusual thing, it took someone who knew what was on the plane to be alarmed enough to leak this info to the press.

To further complicate things and add a note of urgency to this, in Thursday's Canarde Enchaine, the very reliable French political inside news publication, there was an item about Vladimir Putin giving an urgent warning to the Iranians that an American/Israeli stricke was immenent and shipments of anti missle arms from Russia to Iran were stepped up.

From this web, you can see that this iis no simple matter. There will be no clean "surgical" take out of Iranian Nuclear facilities.
Any action on the part of the insane Cheney faction in the pentagon will result in a conflict with unthinkable implications!

All the more urgency to urge your friends and politicians to support any move to remove Cheney from power.

I'm glad Madame B liked my memnomic for if she could only learn to spell it.

Barb said...

I think Stall-out is a really dangerous idea, a terrorist act in itself --causing lots of accidents and disrupting peoples' lives the way only an enemy would want to do it. preventing emergency vehicles from getting to accidents and heart attack victims, and to hospitals and fires, etc. A blackmail tactic, "See what we can do if you don't do what we want?" driving bus drivers mad with cooped up and frightened school children. It would be like a soccer game crush in effect.

Seems to me that American Radicals always think of "demonstrations" of some sort --instead of legitimately getting into power so they can call the shots --or legitimately having a letter-writing campaign to Pres. on down and doing positive, informative, publicity to convey their fears and beliefs to the masses--rather than calling the pres. a liar and Cheany a mere war-monger for corporate interests, etc. They foment anger and hatred instead of good reasoned debate. Reason and genuine concern for the future would be a novel approach for the left. as opposed to the usual smarmy, attack vitriol of Who needs enemies with friends like the far left?

Interesting article in Citizen magazine about a new book by a woman journalist who says the dems aren't listening to women --many of whom went republican on the abortion issue -- nor hearing the black women who indignantly think gay marriage is unnecessary and literally nutty.
Says women want the war to end --but ALSO REALLY care about the values/ moral issues. So the war is the one the Dems are focused upon to shore up their base because they want to keep their radical left social votes and agenda as well.

Victory in 08 is Dems' no. 1 concern for the sake of their social issues which trump all others--they are just as single issue as any conservative Christians are accused of being. And they literally despise the Bible-based world view and those who hold it --evidence was in the recently deleted posts by Mud-rake, accusing Christians of being mentally disabled or victims of OCD, etc.

This sort of civil war with demonization even at the Senate/Congressional level in america is counter-productive to good national debate on the issues. Of course, we do know really nasty people in life --and so it is easy to infer that the other party's politicians are really nasty, too.

The top 3 dems have, according to blog reports on recent debate? , backed down on the immediate Iraq withdrawal advocacy --saying we do have to stay around in Iraq awhile longer. Of course, they still maintain Iraq was just fine under Sadam and no threat to join forces with Osama since no WMD were found. Sadam WAS the WMD killing his opposition off en masse --and he WOULD have joined forces with al quaeda, I believe, had we not intervened, because Sadam had to love what osama achieved.

Why don't you figure out how to put the blame and the rhetoric for global mess squarely where it belongs --on radical islamic groups --and there are a ton of 'em misinterpreting their peace-loving Koran --and warring with their own continually. Seeking revenge against Israel (their bedrock motivation --along with a goal of global Islamic theocracy)

No, I'm not talking about all Muslims --just Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Quadea, Taliban, Wahabi-style home-grown terrorists all over the globe --who, when in power, recognize few human rights of people who are not "with them" ideologically--and people who "sin" by the Koran.

American Christians DO share some faith principles with these people --but NOT the right to murder and terrorize, force a theocratic gov't --though some bloggers say we want theocracy just because we BELIEVE gov't should reflect the majority's view of what is good for society --restraints on evil --not oppressive restrictions --unless you want to marry your own sex and kill your fetuses. That would be oppressive, of course, to promote heterosexual identification and normalcy in children --and cultivate a culture of life --that stressed sexual responsibility more than abortion as birth control, killing 45 million americans since 1973.

This was not vitriolic, by the way.

mud_rake said...

This was not vitriolic, by the way.

Oh, gosh, why would anybody believe that it might be?

Lots of pent up anger inside, eh, barb?

Barb said...

Not really, Mudly! : )

Dariush said...

Mike: "I am of the opinion that military actions against Iran will commence in February or March 2008, and that the net result of this foolhardy plan of action will be an inescapable escalation of the conflict into a wider war with the use of nuclear weaponry for the first time since 1945.

"May God have mercy on all of our souls if this comes to pass."

Americans (to be more specific, peckerwoods) need to know that if they bomb/attack Iran they will pay the piper…you cannot ignore the rest of the world and survive, insulated from your actions. There will be a price. These are not threats but a statement of reality.

The American people must not think that by letting their government behave in this way absolves them of responsibility…indeed; in a democracy they are 'most' responsible. In this there are no innocents! Those that do not take direct action will drag everyone to eventual oblivion…each to their own hell.

We were masters of the civilized world when you were painting your faces blue and howling at the moon and huddling around campfires, conversing in mono-syllabic grunts and handgestures.

The Hellenes are long gone. Very little of their civilization remains intact, and even that only exists due to our preserving it. We're still here.

The Romans are long gone. Nothing remains of their empire or their civilization. We're still here.

The Byzantines are long gone. Nothing remains of them or their civilization. We're still here.

The Mongols disappeared from the pages of world history aeons ago. We're still here.

The Ottomans slit their own throats after WWI. We're still here.

Britain is now nothing but a lapdog nation. Subservient to the whims and demands of others. We're still here.

And we'll still be here long after nothing remains of your kind but ghost stories told around campfires, of pale-faced devils from the West with a voracious appetite for blood and souls.

Zendebad Iran!

Dariush said...

Some literate, non-hysterical commentary from America:

John Caruso - "Lee Bollinger: fearless denouncer of US-designated dictators"

Dennis Perrin - "Booga! Booga!"

Justin Raimondo - "Dress Rehearsal for War"

Anonymous said...

Almost July 2008. Feb March seemed to be pretty quiet. Keep up the predictions tho