Jan 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus Predictions

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Even though I am a cynical independent voter who believes that the federal government is a Leviathan-like beast that is too deeply rooted for real change to occur in Washington, I will look with interest on the events in Iowa this evening.

Heck, given the television writer's strike, there is nothing else on this evening, so I may as well feed my latent political addiction.

My pre-caucus projections in the primaries are as follows:

Democrats
1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Bill Richardson
5. Dennis Kucinich
6. Joe Biden
7. Chris Dodd
8. Mike Gravel

GOP
1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. John McCain
4. Rudy Giuliani
5. Ron Paul
6. Fred Thompson
7. Duncan Hunter

While Clinton seems to be clawing back from what looked a few weeks back like an electoral implosion, I think the campaigning efforts by Obama and Edwards will ultimately resonate better with Iowan voters than the bland, lifeless campaign run by Hillary. Sound the death knell for Biden and Dodd (Gravel never really took off).

I am not buying the "peaked too early" assessments of Mike Huckabee being bandied about today by political commentators, and I think the preacher-governor will take the top spot today. Romney's campaign will be dealt a difficult loss tonight, and McCain - who is banking on a big win in New Hampshire next week - will not hurt himself with a strong third place finish. Ron Paul will flame out much like Howard Dean in 2004, despite his tremendous fundraising efforts via the Internet. Hunter and Thompson will be cooked after tonight, and Paul's virtual ATM will run out of cash, as disillusioned libertarians will no longer believe the hype.

Feel free to weigh in with any prognostications of your own.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you're right about the Repubs, but I see the Dems going: Clinton, Obama, Edwards. Hill and Bill spent too much money not to win in Iowa.

kooz said...

Repubs: Romney
Dems: Clinton

However, I think Edwards will eventually get the nomination for the dems.

Romney Vs. Edwards with Romney being voted our new President.

Although, I would like to see Ron Paul get it.Which ticks me off...because most Americans complaign about the very issues that Paul has REAL answeres for...but like sheep...we will not vote for someone we know is really not a dem or repbub.

kooz said...

complain that is. How the hell did I stick a "g" in complain? Oh yeah...and I meant Repub...not Rebub.

microdot said...

I don't know, sounds like a lot of wishful thinking on Kooz's part.
Perhaps he is looking for a battle of the haircuts...Supposedly Romney is no slacker when it comes to tipping the barber.
I think Hillary is going to lose a lot of sleep over this.
I won't know until tomorrow...it's almost midnight here and it's only 5 pm in Des Moines.
By the way for a real laugh, you should listen to French newscasters say Huckabee, or Des Moines for that matter, the idiots try to pronounce it in French!

historymike said...

Anonymous:

I think there is a strong anti-Clinton backlash that will hurt Hillary right now, though she might be able to raise enough cash to outlast the others.

historymike said...

Kooz:

I think most people pay little real attention to politics, and wunderkinds like Paul and Dean reflect only disaffection amongst the technocrat class.

historymike said...

Microdot:

See if you can get a recording of French telecasters butchering "Huckabee."

Might be funny, especially in light of the fact that Americans get a bad reputation for our mangling of French words.

historymike said...

BTW - my forecast only reflects my unscientific attempt at divination, and does not reflect any latent bias for any one candidate.

At this point, I am unexcited about any of the mainstream candidates. The only candidates who have spoken substantively on the issues in a way that resonates with me are Paul (antiwar, personal liberties) and Kucinich (health care, antiwar).

Obama, Edwards, Clinton, and Romney have spent a lot of time and money saying warm, fuzzy platitudes without providing specifics. Giuliani has said little beyond "9-11!" and "Terrorism!", while McCain seems to try to be all things to all people.

While I disagree with Huckabee on a number of issues, I at least respect him for being honest about his beliefs. If I had to choose a GOP candidate, I think I might prefer an upfront politician like Huckabee over plastic pols like Romney or McCain.

But heck - I have voted for a losing candidate in every election since 1984, when I voted for Reagan. Here's my track record as a voter in presidential races:

1984 - Reagan
1988- Dukakis
1992 - Perot
1996 - Dole
2000 - Nader
2004 - Kerry

Barb said...

From Reagan to Kerry! that's interesting....

Hooda Thunkit said...

Mike,

I see we agreed in 84 and 92 ;-)

This year, it's about as exciting as watching grass (or corn) grow. . .

(When is the Ron Paul revolution supposed to kick in?)