Feb 12, 2008

Chesapeake Sweep: Obama Takes VA, MD, and DC

Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets commuters in Washington, DC; photo courtesy AP

In a stunning setback to the Clinton camp, Democratic presidential candidate and now front-runner Barack Obama scored victories in the primaries held in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Given Obama's fundraising advantages going into these contests, it is difficult to see how Hillary Clinton can come back in the coming weeks, as her opponent has both electoral and financial momentum on his side.

Most surprising of the victories is undoubtedly Virginia, where it appears that Obama will rack up over 60 percent of the total vote. As late as this weekend, Clinton campaign officials were cautiously optimistic that they could squeak out a victory over Obama.

The polls in Maryland will remain open until 9:30 pm EST, but exit polls show Obama with a 3:1 lead over Clinton in the Old Line State, and I fail to see how he can lose. Thus, the election center that is my laptop is making the calls ahead of the media, solely with the goal of generating traffic for my blog.


Clinton held a slim 28-delegate lead over Obama in delegates going into today's races (1136-1108), but these figures include superdelegates, who are allowed to switch their votes. Many pundits argue that it is Obama who really leads in delegates, and respected sites such as RealClearPolitics.com showed the Illinois senator with a 5-15 delegate lead before tonight's results.

There are 168 delegates up for grabs tonight, and I suspect that Obama will snag 100-110 of those. He might very well have a 50-60 delegate lead over Clinton by the end of the evening, and it is quite possible that his lead could surpass 150 delegates before the last-gasp primaries in the states of Ohio and Texas arrive on March 4 for Hillary Clinton.

Even those primaries, which appeared to be locks for Clinton as late as mid-January, look like hotly-contested races now. By the way - I claim creation of the phrase "Chesapeake Sweep", which I used in a post last week, and which has been popping up on the Internet ever since.


Russell said...

You Obama supporters are living in fairyland, since HRC is the only Dem who can beat McCain. The sad news is that he might actually win the Democratic nmination, going down in flames in Novemeber to the GOP machine!

PS: will you leave the post up if Hilary comes back and wins???

historymike said...

1. Sorry, not an Obama supporter, at least not yet.

2. Still, as a political observer I find his campaign fascinating. It has also energized people to head to the polls in a way I have never seen.

3. Yep. If Hillary somehow beats Obama in DC or Maryland, I will eat the requisite crow.

historymike said...

CBS is calling it a 62-delegate lead for Obama at the moment.

Anonymous said...

Hey Russell is that why Obama has a 20% lead over McCain and Hillery has a 2% lead?

Also, the GOP "machine" is breaking down if your are paying attention at all, as unified support for McCain is not there.

Stop with your stupid white boy mentality.

America will vote for a black president, not some Democrat wannabe Neo-con like Hillary.

Anonymous said...

A lot of people on the internet would like to hear the truth about Hilary's involvement with the Black Panther murder trial.

We want to hear her defense about her involvement with the Yale Review of Law and Social Action which is a left-wing journal which promoted cop-killing.



Billy Pilgrim said...

Let me first say this: I called this election nearly a week ago on this very blog, so as Thomas Jefferson once said, booyah mofo.

Secondly, let me put my journalistic integrity on the line: My dear "Russell," I'm not sure what polls or expert testimony you have to support your McCain-will-stomp-Obama claim, but most thinking people in America now agree Obama has a fiercely competitive chance against McCain in the coming weeks in months.

So in other words, go fuck yourself.

Anonymous said...

Well said, ..."Billy"...and I see your statement as nothing but "journalistic integrity".

Now, how do you convince your Archie Bunker Dems to pull for him in the rust belt?

You've got a up hill battle ahead of you.

Si Se Puede!

microdot said...

mr. anonymous (hmm, that's a very common name these days)
I tried to look at both of your links and nada...
The first was to a conservative rumor rag, but the article you were referring to was non existant...
the second....zilch...

try, try again